As some of you know, I spend a big chunk of my time each year in South East Asia, and the region has indeed been on the heightened news alert lately due to the spreading of the new coronavirus from China.
The pace of the spread is indeed quite alarming – over 20,000 cases as of the time of writing, and over 400 of those who died from its effects. There is still no cure or a vaccine, although there have been reports of both from various sources. The virus is slowly taking its toll on the neighbouring countries, especially Thailand, Japan, South Korea and others.
Sounds scary? If so, the media’s job is well done. The hype has been unbelievable, and it seems a lot of people are seriously contemplating cancelling their pre-planned trips not just to China, but to East and South East Asia in general. I am not sure if anyone is already counting the monetary losses from the outbreak, but when it’s all done and over with (and I’m sure that time will occur), it will be many billions, predominantly for China, of course.
Why don’t I sound too concerned? Think about the deadliest virus to humankind. If you guessed flu, you are absolutely right. Every year, 400,000 people on average die from the common seasonal flu Yes, it’s also a virus, and yes, there is a vaccine, but don’t you think those numbers are staggering? That means that in the month of January alone, there have been perhaps 40,000 deaths or even more (given that it’s winter in Northern Hemisphere). How many thousands of those are in Asia?
Lethality of the coronavirus seems only slightly higher than from flu. Basically, majority of those who died are either elderly, very young or people with seriously weakened immune system. If you belong to any of those categories, you do have a legitimate reason for concern, especially if you happen to be in China. Because while the numbers seems really high indeed (especially when you look at those giant blood-red circles on some media maps of the contamination), 20,000 cases is still about 0.0014% of China’s population. The number of dead is still 2% of that.
And the countries outside of China? Nobody seems to have more than 25 cases, and given that most of these countries have tens of millions of people, it’s a spec of sand in a desert.
Now I am not saying it’s not going to get worse – I am not an epidemiologist. But even if it grows ten-fold, you are still far more at risk at getting into a serious traffic accident on your South-East Asia trip than getting the coronavirus. And even you are unfortunate enough to get it, you are most likely going to be fine after a week or two in the hospital. Not the best scenario, of course, but not a reason to cancel your travel plans.
Finally – if you do wear a mask, make sure it’s a right one. The one pictured is not actually the best protection – it’s more for you not to spread germs when you cough or talk, but that’s what I have at the moment. You should get this kind – the N95 respirator, so get some before your trip. And safe travels!